CEDEFOP portrait of the coming Italy

The European Center for the Development of Vocational Training has recently published its "2018 skills forecast" containing a chapter dedicated to the next future (2016/2030) of our Country. On top of the most salient forecasts, it is claimed that 37% of job offers will require a high level of qualification (compared to the Europe of the 28, we are 6 percentage points below the average). Moreover, the share of this specific type of worker seems destined to grow exponentially until 2030, while remaining below the EU-28 average.

Still, just under half of job offers (49%) will require a medium level of qualification, while only 14% will require low qualifications. In both cases, our Country's related estimates are higher (by 3%, to be exact) than in the rest of Europe. The two types of profile, although paired at estimates level, will diverge with respect to the prospects for growth in the timeframe leading to 2030. If for workers with middle-level qualifications the share will remain almost stable, the low-skilled ones, although in decrease, will rise slightly compared to the EU average, practically tending to the surplus.

The job offer that requires high-level qualifications will increase for the occupations where high-skilled professional profiles are already sought, with some excellent examples such as business and administrative professionals, health workers, employees and teachers. Last but not least, and worst case scenario, in its forecast CEDEFOP estimates that the demand for high-skilled profiles will be destined to exceed the supply, creating a skills mismatch which, if not appropriately dammed and countered, could be solved by the inclusion of medium-averaged skilled workers in highly qualified positions.